Betting Lines Are “Lies” & Why You Buy Half & Full Points
You often read or hear that betting lines are designed to get betting going on both sides of a bet. Huge myth; the lines are designed to get you to bet the wrong team so the Casino takes your money.
I encourage you to read Victor Cappello’s and I’s rules for betting so you are not taken advantage of. We have been 75% on average on our bets the last 11 years; break even in betting is 52.5%
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines; Favorites are listed next to the negative number when you read them in the Casino, on you sports betting app or the newspaper. The negative number represents how many point they must win by to cover the spread.
Eagles 1.5 for example means that Philadelphia must beat the Seahawks by at least to0 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score of a game, or better written if the reams’ combined score in the games over or under a preselected number of points/.
People who go to Vegas are on vacation and do not care about “over paying” so they over pay on betting lines; why us who bet on games every week; go for the lower price and win money consistently sustainable which means business. Also a lot of people break our rule #1 and bet their own team no matter what the line is.
Value by business, finance and academic definition is a value equation represented by Psychological Factors + Functional Factors/ Time and Money. As result you use this formula in conjunction with Arbitrage, return to the mean, and the mathematical law of opposites to make a determination on how to research a game to place a bet.
- Key numbers in betting football games is 3,7,10 and 21. A late field goal and a late touchdown can beat you
- Why 3.5 and 7.5 and 10.5 and 21.5 we buy the half point depending on the research you have done, logic and side you picked. Bottomline you do not want a late touchdown or field goal to beat you. As result the casino knows this and you will make less money when you protect yourself against a key number.
- But “Salesman think short=term and businessman thinks long term”. What that means in betting is that to have fun, make a profit long term, and have your wife pay for rising gas prices with betting money you want to be consistent to attain value from a “value equation perspective:”
- 1) You have the “opening line” then 2) you have the line the line “during the week 3) You have the lines 1 hour or 30 mins before kickoff
While is it is important how Casinos just come up with lines just as important the history behind the lines.
The modern line has it’s roots in Lefty Rosenthal. He is the inspiration for the Movie Casino.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenthal You can read his full Wikipedia here. He eventually started the “Line institute” who sold lines to Casino’s. And then the Bookmaker at the Casino creates the final line based on his research.
As a result rule #2 of betting after rule #1 do not bet your own team is do your research. Any question feel free to reach out to our twitter handles www.twitter.com/josuevizcay
Josh Vizcay and Victor Cappello
“Calling Out Buffalo” Week 10 recap
80% for this week is my prediction for week 10 College Football
Links To “I Love South Orange County Podcast” (On all major Outlets) (Homeless Series Premier)
Who is Lake Forest Political Consultant John Bush ?
Orange County DA Todd Spitzer, Orange County Auditor Andrew Hamilton all have political and financial Ties To John Bush
Orange County DA’s office is investigating the 2nd recall of former Lake Forest Councilman Andrew Hamilton for forgery and fraud. In this reporters opinion it is based on the all the evidence that Lake Forest Political consultant John Bush provided; according to Bush himself during the cities public comments. Also according to his Equifax back ground check is that he moved to Michigan to avoid prosecution: it costs a lot of money to extradite him here from Michigan for fraud charges.
Below is a link to John Bush’s public comments during the March Lake Forest City Council meeting.Per public records Bush owes the IRS 209,000 and the state of California $150,000 in back taxes. Call the IRS and Franchise Tax board and they will give you exact figures. This reporter did and those are the approximate figures they provided.
To understand what John Bush did in Lake Forest California it is important to research John Bush’s background.
The initial public records, interview with his estranged wife Metkeo Bush & his Facebook posts revealed John Bush was a prison guard in Michigan then he was fired for bringing in dfrugs into the jail and he moved to Marion County Florida as result
This reporter lived in West Central Florida off and on 20 years. Florida has a high criminal population and cultural history. In the 1700’s convicted criminals from Western Europe were jailed in Florida then used to fight native Americans. In the 1920’s Florida was inhospitable unless you had some sort of air conditioning. So the organized crime from New York and Chicago set up shop.
They were the only group of people who could afford air conditioning until the early 1980’s when cocaine cartels and business oriented organized crime figures, tourist industry big shots & the construction industry set up Community Banks in Florida to lend money to develop the economy. Until this day Florida is relatively poor depressed area run manly by organized conservative crime organizations that are 80% legitimate business.
All major crime families, Mexican cartels and asians gangs have operations in Florida but the most famous is the Trafficante family. Here is the link to their wikipedia page.
John Bush lived in Marion County Florida. The median income for a household in the county was $31,944, and the median income for a family was $37,473. Males had a median income of $28,836 versus $21,855 for females. The per capita income for the county was $17,848. About 9.20% of families and 13.10% of the population were below the poverty line, including 20.20% of those under age 18 and 7.40% of those age 65 or over. Below are links to use as reference to get an idea of what controls Marion County
What made Marion County famous is that famous mobster John Gotti and the Gambino family owns a horse farm in Marion County Florida to rig the horse racing industry. I owned a restaurant for 6 years in Pinellas Park Florida. John Gotti loved my version of Cuban food and had me cater parities there in Marion County where I met J- Lo and Mark Anthony. J-Lo currently lives in Escondido
How do prison guards make money ? By bringing drugs into the jail is the common cultural theme. “You are who you hang out with” and prison guards hang out with convicted criminals all day.
After filing for bankruptcy in Florida : Bush decides to move to Southern California to become a political consultant. And former Lake Forest Councilman Adam Nick hired him to successfully recall corrupt shady City Councilman Andrew Hamilton in 2017 who is bank rolled by the Toll Brothers, Lincoln Club and Republican Party to the tune of $67,000.00 to eliminate one of the last Green Belts in Orange County into 800 houses. Hamilton lost the recall election 70% for and 30% against.
According to Bush’s public comments at Lake Forest City Council meetings, after being paid $180,000 by Nick, Bush somehow according to Mrs. Bush blows all the money and attempts to extort $25,000 more from Nick . Here is a link to Bush’s public comments
In an interview Mrs. Bush states “I gave John 15 years of my life : I do not need his drama anymore, and with the divorce: I want to get rid of my name being tied to the money John owes the IRS and Franchise Tax board $350,000 that I know of “
How will the current forgery and fraud investigation end ? And is Bush’s history going to be to be a forbearer of who will be arrested ? But the embattled OCSD can not use him as a star witness because he lacks so much credibility
The notion of “rejection” in Business is irrational
The whole notion of rejection in sales is ridiculous. An example is when I was single I dated several women who did not want to buy a product I was selling. I even dated a woman who would not eat at the restaurant I owned. She accepted my humor, she accepted me sexually, and she lived with me for 5 years. She just did not like Cuban Food. A lot of people in American society catastrophize things to attack you; so we constantly have to fight off people and things going through life. So the fact that someone did not buy what you are explaining value at the time has absolutely nothing to do with you. Rejection pretty stupid. The person rejecting does not have all the information that is needed to make a decision about you.
Bottomline On Failure Talk-2015
A) Failure starts when you stop trying or quit trying ; and do not have a clear plan otherwise you still have not failed. Also you have not been defeated until you have admitted defeat.
America is all about winners and losers. People love to judge others and even “big time” preachers, motivational speakers to make themselves winners and you the losers say things like “people do not change” “you can rebound from failure”. Both are wrong. While if something is not working and will not work obviously you attack from another angle. But as long as you are fighting failure is just thought not a reality.
As an MBA my analysis of the Book about the “1%”
Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty breaks down the only ways to make money. He is the one the coined the term “The 1%)
1) Money from inheritance
2) Capital from Assets
3) Money from Real Estate
4) Money from labor….People who make the most money from labor are “Super Managers” =CEO’s and down the chain….then people who own “their own business” or have more control over “the line of production” ….Then you have to manage the right “life insurance policy” which is an asset……then “taxes” and structure…then your “Real Estate” all complicated full of variables…..
Do You Know The Difference Between “Sales” and “Marketing” ?
The difference between “Marketing” and “Sales” in a technical or cultural sense is “Marketing” is explaining the value of what services or products you provide.
People get wrong what the real meaning of “Sales” is constantly. In 1000’s of trainings at profitable corporations they get the meaning of the word completely wrong. Sometimes on purpose to manipulate.
“Selling” especially from an United States cultural perspective is when the prospect or suspect states they disagree or do understand your product or service.
Business people who do not like to “over-come” objections or be “Salesy Creep” have to have their marketing so good they never have to sell. The marketing creates enough value to create a monetary transaction
Business people who like to sell or overcome objections learn to prepare their answers in a way that the prospects process the information as marketing or communication of value.
I have run into Mental Health professionals who see themselves as “Spiritual Healers” and do not want to sell. Also I have met Real Estate agents who see themselves as spiritual healers that do not want to sell. That is fine. Just understand your roll in your business.
To have a profitable business you have to have a deep understanding of the value equation which is (value =functional benefits +psychological benefits divided by Time costs + Money costs.)
Bottomline explain your unique true value to the marketplace and to your clients.
If you are really good at being a Mental Health professional or a really good loving Real Estate agent then it is your moral obligation to tell as many people as possible how you can make their experience in your area of expertise better. By executing and communicating the value equation in the mind of your clients a lot good business is done.