NFL AFC 2023 Betting Preview

Last year we went285-195=59.3% =$75,750 profit
In the playoffs we were 19-9=67.8%=$9,050 profitSo we meet on the podcast to share information you can not get any where else

Last year we went 285-195=59.3% =$75,750 profit
In the playoffs we were 19-9=67.8%=$9,050 profitSo we meet on the podcast to share information you can not get any where else@josuevizcay ig twitterGorgeous Mellisa Mel B.@maelanius_ Twitter
scott cobe
High stakes football manager and avid podcast listener I now am a podcaster on i80 sports,lets talk sports#sfb11,#sfb12,wb2021,#sfb13,Pollys playoff

70% ESBC Financial Sports Betting Education – Decision Science Edition

We use business and financial Concepts to make money watching Sports.


Transcript of Podcast

Jason Maverick ; Welcome to thank you. And for joining the ESBC sports betting and financial podcast, we are part of the ESBC podcast network. I’m Jason Maverick. I’m here with Josh Abner. And today we’re going to be talking about wagering and the math involved in wagering, as well as the different types of bets. So, first off, we’ll go into how, how lines work.1

And we’ll talk about first the street that so amid all the fancy and lucrative beds that are available, never losesight of the value in a standard straight bed. You probably should learn and practice this bed often before learning any others. And it should be noted that people who bet for a living or our place sell many frequent bets place, a large amount of them on street bets, almost exclusively.

The straight bed is pretty simple. It pays 11 or 10 dash 10, and you could place one by picking a team, also known as a side over an over and under for points in a game. Also known as the total.

So for example, you would bet $55 to one 50 or $110 to win a hundred dollars and so on. And I’m their MBA.1 (1m 57s):United States, local corruption, expert financial services rep by day, we’ve got this great podcast going.We’ve got Jason in Toronto. So he’s going over the straight bets, right? And like you said, it’s a hundreddollars. You get 90 back. If you win, right.

If it’s one 10 to make it simpler, if you bet $110, you get 10 bucks back in the $10 goes to the casino and to these sports sport as process, right?1 (2m 33s):And that’s a big lie. They tell you that all they want is that $10. That’s not, they wanted the whole hundred dollars they want, well, they want to do is have a system to manipulate it where they take all your money.Good job, Jason, keep going. Yeah. So the, the other, I guess line you could talk about here is the Moneyline bet.

So if you’re not interested in bedding the point spread, although you should be because it presents the2 (3m 0s):Best long-term value, another option available is the money line in which you lay or take odds relative to the dollar, with respect to your team winning or losing. Right. I would disagree a little bit with that. I would alwaysgo with the money line if you can, because the money salesman thinks short term, right?

And then adistance women think longterm, this is men think longterm, you know, my money line has a higherpercentage, right?2 (3m 37s):So you’re making a decision using probability theory between the money line and then the straight bet, right?In those, we’ll have it in the episode notes for those listening to on the podcast. And for those watching thelive video stream, you can see the whiteboard. So the straight bet will be what I call a minus four plusnumber, right?

2 (4m 13s):And for each sport, right? For NBA, MLB and NFL, it’s a different process for each part. So we’re going overthe basics, right? We’re showing you what the problem is, bedding, right?2 (4m 44s):We’re telling you there is a problem. And it’s the math. 50% of bedding is math. The other 50% is knowingwho’s playing. Who’s the better team. Who’s the better coach. So on and so forth, the up 50% it’s math. Andthat’s what we’re going to be presenting to you today. Good job, Jason, keep going. Yeah. So we will talknow about parlays. So these might be the most popular bets out there, especially among novice andamateur betters, right?2 (5m 20s):Perhaps because of the little suckers bedding is for idiots, morons bedding, parlays is how the casino takesall your money easier.

What is a parlay Jason? You, you know, it’s, it’s, it involves wagering on two games ormore on the same bed. Following the casino is predetermined payout scale. Each game on a parlay mustwin for the bet to be a winner, right?2 (5m 52s):So what happens is you think you have, again, we go back to perception being 50 50, and in probability theory, right? Your top is 80% on a confidence model. That’s why you really shouldn’t win more than 80% ofyour bets.2 (6m 22s):If you’re higher than this.

That means that all you’re doing is doing research and eliminating variables andcovert real bulls. Because again, we’ll reiterate and we’ll make sure it’s on the top 10 rules of bedding, butthe way you ensure a result in finance, the way Jason and I would pick a stock or an investment is byeliminating variables and COVID variables because by eliminating variables in covariate bubbles, right,you’re ensure a result.2 (6m 56s):So in sports betting, 80% is your top, right? So if you want to Parley five games, what ends up happening?You get four, right in the return, you get zero money. However, if you bet the games individually, right, andyou bet a hundred dollars these game, you win a 95 and Jason, can you get a calculator out?

Probability theory. Yes. This was the engineering of a decision could have been called decision engineering, but analysis made it clear that you’re not trying to make some decision happen, forcing it, but rather justunderstanding what the best way to go with. So when you’re making a decision this way, you’re dealing withthe it’s the probabilities, the preferences, trying to think what else <inaudible> the alternatives or the way I’veput it is.

3 (31m 46s):It’s what you can do. What you know, which means how, what you can do might affect the future, includingprobabilities and finally preferences, what you want in terms of this, versus that now versus in the future. And for sure, and not so sure are there issues, if you don’t know the probabilities and you don’t really know yourpreferences? Well, it’s, it’s, it is citizens end statement that the great road is not difficult for. He has nopreference.

3 (32m 17s):You see, and this gets down to do you want to get what you want? Where do you want to want? What youget? So if you have no preferences, then you’re perfectly happy. So if somebody says to me, do you want togo to the movies? I say, yes. They said, what do you mean Western? That’s fine. Colored or black bile. I don’t care silent. I don’t care what kind of movie it is. As long there’s flickering images on the screen, then I’llbe happy no matter what he brings back for me to watch. Like you see, we really do have preferences particularly here in the West.2 (32m 51s):Okay. So the insight there is that it relates to sports betting is that you have to know the probabilities, right?

So you have to know the probabilities and you have to eliminate variables and covert them. Right. And how do you do that? Right? The way you do that is by do number two, doing research on the game, never bettingblindly using return to the mean, those are the tools you have in order to analyze the probabilities of a game.2

(33m 25s):So you can legitimately from a business standpoint, make a decision. Cause remember this is wagering ongames using a specific business process3 (33m 39s):Or health to sickness and wealth to being poor and so on. And so we’re kind of stuck in this game of ensurewe get what we want rather than saying, Hey, whatever I get is just fun. Okay. So we do have preferences

sometimes.2 (33m 55s):So what do we want, right? What do we want to say? We want more, better results, right? Ultimately betterprofits, better results. Exactly. So winning 70 to 80% of your games, you’re getting compound interest in themargin between 52.5 and 70%. You’re getting compound interest. You’re enjoying watching the games,you’re making money. So you feel better buying gasoline and expensive gifts, right?2

(34m 29s):That’s clear.3 (34m 32s):Well, I would imagine, well, you do have them. And once you do then, so we’re not saying it’s a great idea tohave preferences, but if you have them then, and you want to get closer to what you want them, you know,no better way of doing it. Then using this logic that we’re talking about. What about probabilities when you’redeeply uncertain? Well, actually, if you’re completely uncertain, that’s the best case. So if somebody’s askingme to bet on the toss of a coin has entailed, I’m going to, aside in general, that’s the passive magician, 5050.

3 (35m 6s):So that’s easy for me. So see, does that a lot of uncertainty or have I got the uncertainty? Well,characterized, I’m ready to go. I guess that’s the question. It’s when you don’t think, you know theprobabilities, I guess. Well, did you see that the whole idea of probability is to be able to describe bynumbers, your ignorance or equivalently your knowledge. So no matter how knowledgeable or ignorant you had, that’s going to determine what are consistent with that

.3 (35m 39s):And then you’re going to make your best decision consistent with what you know, slash don’t know.2 (35m 45s):So decisions does sports betting. That’s huge, right? So you have to be honest when people in sportsbettings don’t do this. How ignorant you are, right? You’re not on the team. You’re not bill Bellacheck. Okay.So the top of your knowledge on any game, it’s 80%. There are no stone cold locks.

2 (36m 18s):You don’t Oh, I’m for sure though, this team’s going to win. No, you don’t. You can only have a, a highirritable 80%. So you have to, like, he’s saying, you have to know your ignorance. Your ignorance is alwaysgoing to be at least 20%. You’re never going to have less than that. I don’t care how I’m perceptions. 50, 50,right? Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear, this is your top. Alright. And it’s nocoincidence in horse racing.

2 (36m 50s):The favorite wins 20% of the time, right? It’s the 80 20 rule. And while he’s talking, I’ll get the book. If youwant to read about the 80 20 rule3 (37m 7s):Decision analysis, best lend itself to what are the best ones to use any decisions involving your money, yourhealth. Okay. I once had a student say, well, I can see using this for your financial decisions, but what aboutthe healthier family? And I said, well, if I had to choose one area in which I could use it, that was the only one. I’d say the health of my family. That’s the most important thing for me. And I’d get some financial advisor to manage my money.

3 (37m 39s):But in fact, it applies to any decision, any decision where you’re allocating a resource, your body did aresource. It only doesn’t apply to where there is no resource. So deciding who to love somebody as well,love them as you’ve got an infinite supply and you want to get more by exercising it. So you never have to make a decision about whether to love somebody

.2 (38m 1s):I would disagree with that3 (38m 3s):Business focused. There’s no love in business.

2 (38m 7s):You can lose a lot of money, loving the wrong person. I would a hundred percent disagree with a professor3 (38m 15s):Circle back the love of money, perhaps the root of all evil. What are the areas in, I mean, you started doingthis project with nuclear power group. Yes. And what are the other areas in which this approach has had themost success had the most uptake? Well, the two biggest I think of, of use are first of all, oil and gascompanies. And the second biggest, I think would be pharmaceutical companies.

3 (38m 45s):And if you think about why those areas, they both have this characteristic of first of all, billions of dollar soften to get a successful drug or, or for oil field, secondly, a long time between making the decision andseeing how it worked out. And thirdly, a lot of uncertainty. So if you put those three together, that’s primehunting ground for decision downs, any fields that you think ought to be using it a lot more than they are

3 (39m 20s):Well, when you say using it, you see, once you start thinking this way and it’s mattered what I call it, gettingclarity of thought about things. Cause that’s a challenge. Once you have clarity of thought, you would use it,every word you could. I mean, every day, no matter how simple it is, or you don’t, you don’t have to run giantcomputer programs to make most of the decisions we face. So even the people who do this for a living arenot, you know, running giant programs to figure out which pizza order or they go to the pizza parlor.3 (39m 51s):But the concepts are always there. And being able to think clearly in terms of these concepts will make mostdecisions for you right away. And then if it’s complicated, you may get into computation and specificationpreferences here in the middle of stuff. So that’s a big part of it, right? As much as I would love to say, Oh myGod, I’m 80% on NBA. No, the decision was made for me by the circumstances and the probabilities, asmuch as I would like to sit shot, gave up though, actually the process and the system.3 (40m 33s):So that’s a little bit of less of a psychological factor. Cause you can’t be all ego about it then it’s you it’s reallythe process. And it is not the decision you want necessarily. It’s just a decision that presented itself based onthe math on Valley, the huge industry that has grown up here over the past 30 years, I’m sure there areareas like building semiconductors where people make, have a decision process, just like, Oh yeah, fabbuilding, big fabrication facilities, very expensive, you know, competitive elements, which part is going togrow.3 (41m 12s):Is it going to be the CPU or is it going to be the storage areas? Yeah. Those are there and people do use it.But much of the ethos of Silicon Valley right now is, Oh, I’m just gonna try something. And if it doesn’t work,I’ll try the other thing and try the other plus fine, as long as you’re not spending billions of dollars. But whenyou build a fad plant, you know, for Silicon wafers, that’s a lot of resources being put in a spot on the earth,very expensive resources.3 (41m 43s):And while there, to some extent you might say flexible and being able to use for some other purpose, notreally. I mean, you’re not going to make washing machines in the fab plant. So it’s a big commitment. Andusually for some period of time, other things that look a bit like decision analysis have been used a lot in thefinancial world over the past few decades as well. I think some very successfully others less. So is thereanything about financial markets that makes this process harder?3 (42m 14s):Well, I guess whether you believe that the stock market is a random walk and we’ve seen those all the time,you know, people say, well, you know, I threw darts at the stocks and here’s what I invested in. And youknow, you see that a lot of it is just chance. In other words, your ability, the market probably has a lot ofinformation built into it already, the chance that you’re going to do better than it, whether it’s the stock marketor the commodities market is pretty slim. I remember once working for a company that used to own an awfullot of copper and they had, they had someone who, and that’s where I would say that he is wrong as far asthat’s concerned.3 (42m 60s):Cause it’s the whole battle between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Right. And right now youcan beat the market all the time. But I think it’s like everything else. It’s an art and a science where you use acompany combination of both and then real intelligence is he to wait for it all intelligence. Right. And it justdepends on the situation. What do you think Tracy1 (43m 30s):Exactly right. It’s about, it’s about, you know, making sure that you’re making the right choice if you can,because if you’re losing a lot, you’re going to be losing your bank. Right. You don’t want to be losing a lot.You want to be making smart decisions and trying to win, trying to maximize value, maximize profits as muchas you can.3 (43m 53s):Yeah. And I hate the word try. I had a client the other day. They went, why? Oh no, I’m sorry. I’m sorry. No,we’re going to do this. So you’re going to make profits. So you’re going to use a process. You’re going to usethe system now the sports betting market, it’s a lot simpler. You have a lot less vert. Right? How manycompanies are there in Canada on the created on the Canadian stock exchange?1 (44m 21s):A couple thousand, for sure. Yeah.3 (44m 23s):And there’s only 30 NFL teams. So if you, if you had to make a decision, Jason, whether to analyze2 (44m 33s):2000 Canadian companies or analyzing 30 NFL football teams, which one is a lot easier to get through theanalysis? Well, the definitely the football team, especially if you like football, right. It’s going to be a lot morefun. But the problem is right for the Canadian stock market is that you can make more money, right?Analyzing the outcomes of those 30 NFL football teams, then the Canadian sophomores for an hour, at least3 (45m 8s):Well we’d report back to them on the real road leading to a compromise in San Sandia, just all the timeanything happening or the workers are on strike. Oh, well, okay. That’s going to change that. So you’recompeting with someone with that kind of information when you get into the cop market. So yeah, somepeople are much better informed than others. So we can, the information more than the process that endsup winning out will help the people with veterans.2 (45m 34s):Alright. So it is very important. One, he says, right. That’s why the number two rule of bedding is never beenwhiny. You know, always do your research because this is very important. And this is very important to thevalue of the product3 (45m 49s):Right here.2 (45m 54s):It’s basically saying that people with a better information are the people get the best outcome.3 (45m 59s):So you’re competing with someone with that kind of information when you get into the cop tomorrow. Soyeah, some people are much better informed than other. So within the information, more than the processthat ends up pointing out will help the people with better information, you know, are the ones who are goingto do best. So unless you’re right in that business, you’re no as much as anybody about it, wouldn’t be wisebetting against them back to using this in personal life or just in your, in your career as an individual.3 (46m 32s):What are some of the ways in which you’ve done that over the year? Well, let me tell you the most importantthing about this whole field in terms of the takeaway, right?2 (46m 41s):And that’s why this podcast I feel is the greatest podcast of all times because people with the bestinformation get the best outcomes. Right, right. Jason, of course, of course, and anything in life and we’vegot the best information. So as a result of us having the best information, you and I are going to make themost money betting on sports bottom line, very, very, very, very clear3 (47m 17s):If the people, if they come to the first class and they may be shopping for classes and I say, look, you haveto leave, took this one thing away. And that is you can’t tell the quality of decision you’re making by theoutcome that will be produced or to put it another way you can’t tell by the outcome, whether you’ve made agood decision. So you can have good decisions, having bad outcomes or good outcomes and bad decisions,having good outcomes or bad outcomes.3 (47m 49s):And it’s just, it’s just a logical mistake to say, I got the good outcome. I must’ve made a good decision. Andyet that’s what everybody thinks. So in, in sports, particularly we’ll see a situation say in football where thecoaches decided to run for the two point conversion at the end of the game. And he wants to be sure he getsthe two instead of one and it doesn’t work. And the announcer says, nah, that was a bad decision. It’scompletely illogical.3 (48m 19s):You can’t tell whether it was a good decision by how it came out. And that’s something, there are someeconomists and statisticians who for the past five or 10 years have been trying to persuade the footballcoaches that,2 (48m 31s):All right. So, so that’s very, very interesting point. And Jason, we talked about it last week and then after hefinishes that thought, cause this is a huge point, right? In huge way that we can educate people and makepeople a lot of money. And it really helped them with the psychological part of it is that your top is 80, right?And really, if you want to measure luck, you can measure it by this number. If you know what you’re doing,you’ve done your research.2 (49m 4s):Your luck percentage is like 20%. So we’ll let him finish with that point that we made last week. And I’d loveto hear your thoughts, Jason, because it’s very, very crucial to the enjoyment of sports betting and explainingsports,3

(49m 18s):Better decision, any decision. And let’s take in medicine that there’s something that people use to say. Yeah,2 (49m 25s):It’s very interesting listening to this. Again, it really hits home with COVID-19 and decisions that we’re makingon a macro level about our health. And then on a micro level about our health and using decision science.We hear a lot about science and data. Well, this decision science, right? Whether they take the vaccine ornot, whether to social distance, where to wear a mask, you know, all these things

3 (49m 47s):Sort of, as a joke in medicine, the operation was success, but the patient died there again, the operationcould have been done perfectly. It could have been a good decision to have the operation and sometimespatients die. Not because you left the knife at him or something, but just that’s what happens sometimes. Sodo you judge the quality of decision by the process that was using exactly correctly in codes? First of all, hasthe right frame frame is the most important thing. It’s the one that’s talked about the least.3 (50m 19s):See. So if you think of moving to Palo Alto, when you say I’m going to rent a place, that’s a completelydifferent frame from got to buy a place.

So different information, different preferences, different alternatives.So till you get the frame, right, and the Frank could be even bigger, you’re not going to rent or buy a lookingat both. So that’s the most important thing to get the frame, right? So otherwise you’re going to get the rightanswer to the wrong problem. What’d you got the frame, right. Then it’s a matter of characterizing thealternatives you have and maybe being creative about them.3

(50m 50s):If you can be, sometimes you can sometimes categorize alternative it’s worth betting. It is eliminatingvariables and COVID variables to ensure a result. You kind of stuck with what you’ve got unlikely. You’regoing to be telling the eye surgeon a new way to operate on your eyes. Probably not. Then you’re going tohave to start there. What are the chances of different things happening from, you know, dying from theoperation to be cured to having, or if it’s by drugs instead of side effects.3

(51m 27s):So that’s all characterizing the information that you’ve got. And finally, you’ve got the preferences, you knowwhat? You’ve got different States of health and value, those preferences, which is best. In other words,questions that get down to you, would you rather have a punch on the jar kicking the shit, right. That’s kind ofdepends on the situation. Right. And how big the other person? Oh yeah. So once you got these three thingsin sports betting, when you break down is how much money you got that, right? So the process for us, if younever met more than 25% of the bank roll, it’s really like a game.3

(51m 60s):We suggest betting equal amounts on each game. So he’s doubled up if you really like it, because you knowthat your top is 80%, not a hundred percent, which you call the decision basis, but you can do what youknow and what you want. And you’re dealing in the right frame. You’re good to go. The rest is just logic,Ryan. Thanks again for talking with us, it’s been a pleasure.3

(52m 30s):So what are your thoughts, Jason, on the whole, the operation was a success, but the patient died.1 (52m 38s):You know, it’s something where that’s the thing about life is you could do everything correctly and still theoutcome is, is unpredictable. Right? And, and I guess that that’s the, that’s the, the mystery as well in, in, insports and in business and in life is unexpected. Things happen just like this pandemic, right before dependemic, the us economy was at the best state ever right in history.1

(53m 11s):And it was roaring. It was really roaring. And unfortunately the pandemic, it caught everyone off guard. Noone, no one knew what, what was gonna happen. And it really, it shook the whole world, it, the whole world.So this is kind of the thing is, you know, making decisions, important decisions is, is very important, but also,you know, leaving that, having that, understanding that anything could happen, anything could happen at anytime to any person in any way.1 (53m 46s):Right. So,2 (53m 51s):Yeah. So I’ll tell you what, man, I don’t think anybody can ever get a podcast with podcast series where wego into every single minute detail, right on how we get 80%, 70 grade going through this process. Jason, I’mgoing to ask you this question, going through the process of the last podcast, right.

When you think about it,is it, how is it that they get 70 to 80%, right? How can they not using this process and analyzing thelimitations and inefficiencies in the sports betting market?1 (54m 34s):For sure. And it’s, you know, once again to all the new listeners, you know, it’s important to check out thewebsite and read the 10 rules of bedding, right. So that they could get the foundation in place of, of, of how,how it works and how we make our picks.2 (54m 51s):Yeah. And I’ve been working on it 12 years and I got some new information that I’m going to add on to it.

So it’s a comprehensive legacy type document that I think at the end of it, they could put it in the SmithsonianInstitute for sports betting because everything is, I think the pandemic has, you know, in those sports, it, you know, you’ve been able to reflect and have perspective, right. Things that happen in my 50 years of life,since I’ve been probably conscious probably seven years last 43 years have been interesting, you know,perspective wise.2 (55m 29s):

The first incident for me was Reagan getting shot in 1982 by a guy who was in love with Jodie foster and was mimicking the taxi driver. Then from there we went, you know, you had Iran Contra, and you had allthat. The United States to CIA bringing crack into the poor neighborhoods to use, to buy arms for differentrebels around the country or around the, the, the world.2 (55m 59s):

Then you go from that, you go to the 1988 crash, right? Bush said ” read my lips, no new taxes. He raises taxes.You lose to Clinton. Then you have the internet bubble. Then you go from the internet bubble to nine 11 andthe Wars. Then you go from nine 11 and the war, you know, before you had the bomber, he kind of startedthe whole thing in Columbine, started the shootings at the high schools a before then they had nine 11.2

(56m 31s):Then you have the homeless Wars in the middle East. Then you have started with Erik Gardiner. I can’tbreathe. He had Sarah bland who moved from Kansas city to Texas for a new job, new start in life. She getsa new job. She gets over by police and she ends up dead horrible incident. If you want to see the body camson that. Very interesting. Cause the cop never went to jail. You go, <inaudible> where cops put a broom uphis ass in New York. It was horrible.2

(57m 1s):Then you go to a 2009 crash. You get Obama’s president. Now you get Georgia, Florida, Brianna Taylor, andMont Arbery. And it’s just the combination of all that says to a lot of the minority communities around theworld. No more, man, we can’t take this anymore. I’m just too much. It is not just in the United States. Youhad London, you had what? Shocked me was New Zealand. What have to the streets in Australia, it’s ahuman thing.

2 (57m 33s):Right? And then you have the pandemic. So you have perspectives of different times, right? You have the crash of 1928. So the perspective is that there’s real institutional inefficiencies in the sports market. Thatwhen you got a guy like Jason, he got a guy like guys with we’re the most educated population history. You have the access for the most information.2 (58m 4s):

So when you put it together, the sports for kids with sports 50 is the least of our problems and kind of easierto kind of figure out final thoughts, Jason. Yeah. The, I guess my final thoughts are, you know, it’s reallyimportant to make good decisions and to, you know, make sure if you’re, if you’re new to the bedding, bettingon sports to go with the money line at the beginning, you know, or exhibit the same amount, but you know,go on the website to read the 10 rules of bedding, you know, give us, give us a follow and, and, and stay,stay up to date and you’re going to get some great pics.2

(58m 44s):You’re going to get some excellent picks. Absolutely. You get the whole nine yards. We didn’t leave nobody behind. And we always end with Winston Churchill. You make a living from your labor, but you make your life right. (Higher level thinking is long term thinking) you make a life from what you give. Thank you for learning,listening to the ESBC podcast network.