It’s that simple. That is the definition of what is a poll. Polls are most recognized as a means to take the temperature of the political climate at any moment in time. However, the polls in the 2016 clearly stated it was going to be President Clinton. As result it became clear to a large portion of the population that scientific polls may be unreliable predictor of high probabilities.
On the eve and nights of any election, news outlets will present viewers with absentee ballot statistics, election exit polls and many other forms of data, which are intended to provide the public with a valid consensus of what the final results will be.
Forecasting the winner. The betting markets however are now recognized as a better predictor of outcomes than scientific Polls. In the last elections every poll was wrong other than the Los Angeles Times Tracking Poll. However that betting saw a late surge of now President Trump betting action. Especially from Russian President P utin. Just Kidding lol. We are a non political podcast.
Over the past few decades, with the immergence of the worldwide web and especially the explosion of social media, anyone and everyone can conduct a poll on anything which is of general interest to the individual creating the poll, specific groups or the general population.
Who makes the best pizza? Who was the best player to ever wear the Yankee pinstripes? Rolling Stones or Beatles? The world has no shortage of polls and where there’s a poll, there a tens-of-thousands of opinions. So, what makes one poll better than another and how does one determine which one is more credible?
Nate Silver has made a career analyzing Polls to educate on high probability outcomes
For the Purposes of educating you on predicting high probability outcomes during March Madness Let’s look at the NCAA Men’s Basketball and National Football League Polls.
Starting with the NFL, there are thirty-two teams and roughly seventeen hundred players. While there’s still confetti falling from the most recent Super Bowl, there are some who are already posting 2020/21 NFL power rankings.
Interesting. I would think that at this time there are too many unknown variables to place a credible weight on the factors needed to determine a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Case in point,
on this very day, the Los Chargers, a team with no quarterback, several positions in question and coming off of a dismal season, are posted as 20/1 favorites to win the AFC. Another AFC 20/1 favorite, the Tennessee Titans. I can’t believe whatever combination of variables and covariables were used to calculate these odd could truly have such similar results when looking at these two teams. And so, what we have are odds based on some fact and one heck of a lot of speculation. But back to polling.
With the exception of some, independent, random groups, regular season NFL polls will prove to be fairly similar. Compare those of, the AP, ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, USA Today and you will find negligible differences as the season progresses. On any given week if three teams are deadlocked with similar records, then strength of schedule should determine a clear number one. Yet, it’s also very plausible for two or all three teams to not only have similar records, but to also have played similar strengths of schedule and therefore making each team deserving to be the number one. There are a lot of complicated factors to consider and put together to picture a high probability outcome.
“Seeing is believing” On our 10 rules for betting on NFL -College Football and NBA and College basketball rule #2 is do your research. Link here https://ecosystemsbusinessconcierge.com/2019/08/28/top-10-rules-for-betting-nfl-cfb-and-college-basketball/. And polls put information in your mind. However the point we are making here is that these polls are as worthless and the national polls predicting Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump in 2016.
The other poll we’ll use as an example are those tracking, NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball. Unlike the NFL data of teams, players and games, NCAA Men’s Basketball data is exponentially greater. We’re talking, three-hundred and fifty-four teams, distributed over thirty-two conferences across the nation, with four thousand, three hundred athletes. From the beginning of the pre-season through all conference/league play, some ten thousand games will be played.
The major polls for NCAA Basketball are the AP and Coaches polls. Beyond those two, there are a plethora of outlets who employ an astounding number of “experts”. USA Today, every major media network, major and even mid-market newspapers and of course the growing number of online gambling books have their own experts and polls. From Ken Pom to Advanced Analytics outfits
Now bottom line it is our philosophy on the #EBSC Podcast that experts are the ones that can predict consistently the outcome of games above 52.5% up to 80%. If you are hitting over 80% you are a degenerate not paying attention to your business or family; just sitting there researching games. What gives us a heightened sense of awareness is that we only get paid if we consistently hit over 52.5% and we are enjoying watching the games laughing , texting our buddies, and dancing after wins.
Sticking with the AP and Coaches polls, each have established the standard format of selecting the
Top 25 teams in the nation that the end of the year has been a poor predictor of the teams in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA basketball Tournament
The NCAA Basketball polls are as active as the stock exchange. The coveted Number One ranking is the double-edged sword.
Ask, Coach Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans. In, November 2019, as the Thanksgiving holiday tournaments were wrapping-up, one very noted national sports network page and probably a couple of others, ran headlines to the effect, ‘MICHIGAN STATE READY TO CONTROL THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSIP FROM WIRE-TO-WIRE’. That was in November. This week’s headline, ‘PRE-SEASON NO. 1, MICHIGAN STATE DROPS OUT OF TOP 25’.
What we’re trying to impress is that when it comes to NCAA Basketball, the variables and covariates are so deep, one really has to do their homework to understand the polls and reach educated conclusions on the wagers being considered.
In reality there are 6 polls to take note of. The aforementioned AP, and Coaches Poll. The NCAA committee poll that is driven by politics and marketing interest of the Nate Silver has made a career analyzing Polls as a tool to educate on high probability outcomes
The NCAA has a 3 Billion dollar contract with CBS Sports and part of the deal is the “made for TV” 16 team reveal in early February.
3. The Las Vegas Casino polls 4. Iine institute polls &power ranking. 5. The public at large perception. But the most important poll is like #ESBC Podcast member Craig Misrack states is 6. your poll. “See with your eyes” Misrach states every NFL Betting and Gambling Podcast.
Reporters have to keep relationships with players and coaches. As a result they do not want to lose access for writing stories over being honest over where the team they are covering should be ranked.
Another factor to consider is that coaches add pieces for the offensive and defensive schemes as the year goes along.
Coaches that have won titles like John Calipari, Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, and Jay Wrigt ect only care about the post season so they will “take the pedal off the medal” to protect their kids legs for March Madness to earn multi million dollars bonuses. So early season, and some mid season games they are willing to lose in order to make the Final Four where the fans are happy, and their wives are happy about the money.
.The goal of the casinos is to influence you to pick the wrong team so they can make a profit.
Do not allow false premises to mess up your decision making process
Like we say at the beginning of the Podcast the object is to make us and you money. You have to make your own determination based on our goals of cashing 80% of tickets consistently, with a sustainable process and consistently increasing the bank roll to pay for gas, dinners and drinks.