Tag: 70% NFL Free Picks ESBC Weekly Against the Spread Follow The Money Podcast Week #5

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/esbc-nfland-sports-betting-podcast-network/id1478807104

Systematically betting on NFL, College Football, College Basketball, and some NBA allows you to make a decision without having to hear anyone else’s mouth.
You can always win and have money in your pocket to avoid “Hard Times” in the “American Dream” Dusty Rhodes sense.

Over a 10 year period with my brother who I met at work in Carlsbad California: Victor Cappello; have come up with a process of 243 rules of betting. The result of those rules are we paid for Vegas trips including our legendary 4 days in Vegas for the start of the 2010 NCAA tournament where we won over 90% of our bets and did a crazy parlay that we only needed

Texas to in-bounds the ball and we would have been retired.

However, that is the “beauty” and “fun” of betting like sociologist; you enjoy the madness and craziness of human nature. Even though it is Sports gambling ; it is very clean compared to other forms of entertainment these days.

Through out the last 3000 years Westernized society irregardless of religions influence with the governments has had some sort of legalized wagering

 You have to have a system or code you live by; not only to make money betting but have fun and laugh while you are doing it. Each part of the country is different. Therefore outcomes vary.

I am originally from Los Angeles California and spent 20 years in Florida and now I have been back in Southern California for the past 12 years. Victor is originally from Buffalo, we met in Carlsbad California and we have used our knowledge and sports together for a million laughs over the last decade.

Also, we have paid rent and Christmas presents with our picks. Here are your top 10 Sports gambling rules and remember come up with a few of your own and let us know.

1. Never bet on your own team. This is straight out of economics. Economics is 40% math and 60% in psychology. Because of the emotional attachment, propaganda in the newspaper and TV you always think that your team will perform better than you think when times are going good and worse when times are going bad. Especially if you have a job and a wife or girlfriend or kids you are never going to put the pieces to pick the right side of a game
2. Never Bet Without During Your Research; Read the local “beat writers”; talk to fans at the games that really know what they are talking about, read the preseason magazines but do not pay attention to any of the predictions: make your own. Always know what happened the last time the teams played. This removes some negative variables that could effect a positive outcome.

3. If you lose it is not because of “bad luck” it is because you picked the wrong team; No Such Thing As A “Badbeat” The reason you can make money consistently in Sportsbetting is that coaches like Bill Belicheat, Nick Satan and Andy Reid have scripts for the 1st 20 plays of every game and map out how the season will go. Therefore after watching games your whole life you can pick up on patterns and predict how players and teams will react.

It is a natural human reaction to try to make yourself better ; that is the reason 90% of people do not want to admit that they are wrong.

However, like in economics, the “opposite of every truth is also true”. Betting uses the mathematical law of “opposites”. For every coach like Andy Reid there are new coaches like Anthony Lynn of the San Diego Chargers right now in 2019. I am sure he is trying to do the same things as Belicheat and Reid but since every As a result you get random outcomes that you can consistently bet against; depending on the situation. I have been told by people that work at NFL teams front offices that even though it is “counter-intuitive” there is not a consistent book of best practices for every team.

You can tell which team has a good management system and which do not. The league Commissioner makes sure the “goose that is laying the golden eggs” PR and marketing do not get affected by the different management styles. Each NFL team for example has 4 built in wins.Therefore after each outcome reflect and think why you got the pick right or wrong

4. Never Bet More Than 25% Of Bank Roll: If you were psychic you would know the Lottery numbers. Because of evolution and coping mechanisms we overestimate decisions. So no matter how much you think a team will win; to keep money in your bankroll to have fun never bet more than 25% of your bankroll. 52% is break even and 70% is the goal to attain.

5. Never Parlay Games: “Salesmen think short-term and businessmen think long term” the variables are too many to be a good business decision pure entertainment is another story. The probability of a favorable outcome math wise has the least variables and co-varables. When you do a parlay you are added a variable that is designed to eliminate your profit and free cash flow.

6. Bet The Moneyline: Do not get killed by extra point missed. Again from a math perspective you eliminate some variables and co-variables that may effect a positive outcome. If you are not feeling a clear edge point the point

7.Bet The Coaches Not The Players Coaches especially in College control the game. What are the coaches goals? Does he care about bowl games; and wears out his teams getting reps for the next season? Does he only care about the season regular season division title like Bill Self and lose early in the tournament? Is the coach like Belicheat where the full offensive and defensive schemes are not in until the playoffs? is there “bad blood” between the coaches?

Big debate if you can predict turnovers ? New England has always been great at protecting the ball and we have made a lot of money picking the under based on that and Belicheats coaching philosophy.

8) Myth Lines Are Made For Betting On Both Sides & Any Statistic Is Useful “Lines are lies” Lines are made to make money. If the lines makers can get 80% of the people to bet the wrong team “they” love it. I have a client who does analytics for a major league baseball team and will not take any NFL clients 
 and works for a major league baseball team that has won a World Series using her analytics formula and analysis.

She is the smartest person I have ever met. She is a mathematician-. She states analytics does not work in football because mathematically there are too many variables in football. Sports books are not regulated like Robinhood or E-trade. As a result we have no idea really what exactly are the flows of cash.

So logic will tell you that the lines are in the best interest of the Casino, Sportsbook, and Hotel conglomerate not you.

9) Stop Betting If You Are Not Laughing All The Time, Having Fun And Helps You Escape From Reality

10)Use The Same Logic And Process For Investing In Stocks, Businesses And In Products In Betting. Value is value.

10. A -The same level of organization

My process is this

1. Research
2. Use math to identify the situation
3. Eliminate as many co-varibles as possible
4. Rigorously apply logic

If you have information that the masses do not have then go for it; put money down.

10. B-Avoid recency bias ”

As Robert Glazer writes “The concept of regression to the mean was first discovered by the statistician and sociologist Sir Francis Galton. As part of his research, Galton observed that tall parents tended to have children who were shorter than them, whereas short parents often had children who were taller than them.  

Based on this, Galton developed the principle of regression to the mean, which states that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. In other words, if something extremely unexpected happens, it is likely to be followed by something that’s more aligned with statistical projections or expectations. 

We have a tendency to overreact to results in the short term and use those outcomes to make long term decisions, ignoring the reality of regression to the mean. In particular, we tend to ignore the role of luck and timing when evaluating extreme early outcomes. “

“Regression to the mean” plays out its importance with betting lines

While is it is important how Casinos just come up with lines just as important the history behind the lines. 
 The modern line has it’s roots in Lefty Rosenthal. He is the inspiration for the Movie Casino.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenthal You can read his full Wikipedia here. He eventually started the “Line institute” who sold lines to Casino’s. And then the Bookmaker at the Casino creates the final line based on his research.

As a result rule #2 of betting after rule #1 do not bet your own team is do your research. Any question feel free to reach out to our twitter handles www.twitter.com/josuevizcay @cnolan

Financial and math terms such as
 *Arbitrage- Buying and selling similar securities
 *Return to mean
 *Law of opposites
 People have never gotten rich with Technical Analysis but has gotten rich selling it
 Qualitative Fundamentals to Consider
 There are four key fundamentals that analysts always consider when regarding a company. All are qualitative rather than quantitative. They include:
 * The business model: 
 * Competitive advantage: 
 * Management:

• Corporate Governance: Are they winners; were they “given” success verses “earning” success
• Fundamental analysis involves the consideration of all things that could affect the price of a stock such as corporate earnings, product developments, political considerations such as laws and regulations, corporate governance, accounting issues, etc.
• Technical analysis involves the interpretation of patterns on charts that show the changes of prices over time.

Find more information on our other video and long form articles on our website linktr.ee/esbcpodcastnetwork

Reference for Podcast Episodes
 Evidence is defined as information and events that can be proven
 1) Video evidence with corroboration of the information 
 2) Contemporaneous documentation with corroboration
 3) Eye witness testimony with several sources that corroborate the eye witness testimony
 4) Probability theory where variables are eliminated to a logical conclusion and a 20 % “luck factor” is added to the process

Anti-Social Personality Disorder

1) Lack Of remorse
 2)Frequent lying 
 3) Lack Of Empathy
 4) Superficial Charm 
 5) Lack Of Positive Emotions 
 6) Distorted sense of Self 
 7) Constant source of new sensations

Evidence

1) Video evidence with corroboration of the information 
 2) Contemporaneous documentation with corroboration 
 3) Eye witness testimony with several sources that corroborate the eye witness testimony
 4) Probability theory where variables are eliminated to a logical conclusion and a 20 % “luck factor” is added to the process

References

Thinking in Bets. 2018.

Interference : how organized crime influences professional football. 1989.

Belichick : the making of the greatest football coach of all time 2019