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In a crisis like COVID-19 local political corruption harmful effects become clear. In Lake Forest we do not even know the Mayors last name or who she is married to.
Bottom line like the ancients said if you do not participate in Government you will be ruled by your inferiors
Link to the original Editorial here (Orange County Register is basically a PR Firm for Developers and the Orange County Republican Party that rigs elections for them.
His response is notable because this is the hidden cost of corruption.
“Andy O’Connor wrote “Lake Forest City Council, at the meeting of March 17, approved $475K for “Performance Bonus” without giving any details of what employees are receiving!
At the meeting of July 16, 2019, Councilman Dwight Robinson said, “We need to tighten our belts.”
Since then Robinson and the other four council members have spent $217,000 for “ART” for the new Civic Center (some of which isn’t accessible to the public), $165,000 salary for a glorified facility manager for the Civic Center, and renewed the contract for city manager Debra Rose to $238,000, more than the governor’s salary!!
Now, OCSD wants $800K for two full-time deputies and a patrol car!!
Robinson and the other four council members say we must “tighten our belts” but then SPEND ridiculously!!
Andy O’ConnorFoothill Ranch”
Here is some context to his “Letter to the Editor”
In speaking to over 4000 residents in the successful recall of corrupt city councilman Andrew Hamilton member of the Lincoln Club political non -profit that funds 100% of the Republicans in Orange County
This delayed Home Builder Toll Brothers execution of paying off the city council to change the last green space for 769- 69ft million dollar houses with no back yards or drive ways.
Toll Brothers spent over $900,000 in campaign contributions to rig the Lake Forest City Council per 460 campaign disclosure forms.
Many residents felt that corruption is to be expected of politicians and that they did not care as long as it did not affect them.
Academic articles state that the cost of local political corruption are higher costs that deplete available cash in the budget for a crisis situation. Flint Michigan is a great example.
In Lake Forest the Orange County Sheriffs Association PAC pays off the city council and as result are bankrupting the city.
The Police is 60% of the budget. Historically over the last 20 years the Lake Forest City Council and staff have not been effective in leverage the United States free enterprise system and Capitalism to create revenue for the city.
They have relied on Greedy developer fees without a good business plan or moral compass. They are a “One trick Pony” despite the City manager making $300,000 and assistant city manager make $179,000.00 which is a lot for a city that does not have to mange a police force or fire department.
As a result there is no money for drive thru COVID-19 tests in Lake Forest California for the residents
COViD-19 and it’s effect on the financial markets is an analogy on some types of Homelessness.
What makes a market crash like this one & 2008 is a series of negative low probability negative events at the same time in conjunction with underlying problems.
If someone is living “paycheck to paycheck”. They get sick+ divorced + fired/ all at the same time for the 1st time in their life =homeless
A Specific example here is Russia and Saudi Arabia is a price war & not caring what happens to the rest of the world in a crisis.
With an overall record of 27-3 and conference record of 16-1, the Kansas Jayhawks sit atop the Big 12 Conference and currently are ranked by the AP as the nation’s number one team. These aren’t unchartered waters for Kansas Coach, Bill Self, who possesses one of the most successful records in modern day NCAA basketball. Through early, February 2020, Coach Self had guided the Jayhawks through 602 games. Over the course of those games, there are only thirty-eight, six percent, of the Jayhawk’s games were unranked.
Since 2000, the team has captured or shared fifteen Big 12 regular season titles and have won eight Big 12 Conference Tournaments. They’ve made three trips to the Final Four and in 2008, the Jayhawk’s claimed the ultimate achievement when they captured the National Championship by outscoring the Memphis Tigers, 75 -68, in the title game.
2018 was the last time the Jayhawks made it as far as the Final Four, but this year’s team not only has the potential to make it to the Final Four, they have the talent to make a legitimate run at the grand prize.
For starters, they have eight players who have played in twenty-eight to thirty of the thirty games played to date. The average playing time for those eight players is, twenty-five minutes. The team is deep. Deep, healthy and obviously well-conditioned. Those three ingredients are very key to a team’s ability to perform well and succeed in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s a little insight to Coach Self’s squad.
Senior Center, Udoka Azubuike. While not exceptionally mobile, Azubuike is a strong defensive presence in the middle. Not much of a shooter, he still gets the ball in the net and averages almost 14 points per game. Barely averaging forty-four percent from the free throw line, he would also be the player that teams will want to foul late in the game when it’s a one or two possession situation. Don’t be misled by the mobility and shooting remarks. The big man more than makes up for these things with his inside play and ability to defend. In addition to the 14 PPG average, he’s averaging ten rebounds, (3/Off, 7/Def). He’s played in all thirty of the Jayhawk’s contests and averages twenty-eight minutes per game. Azubuike is as solid as it gets in the middle.
Supporting Azubuike is, Sophomore Forward, David McCormack. At 6’10”, 265, he provides great back-up when Azubuike takes a breather or when additional Kansas wants to enhance the play int the middle.
Led by, Sophomore, Devon Dotson, Kansas boasts five solid guards on their roster. That’s the type of depth that allows a team to rotate the line-up frequently and wear down opponents. Dotson has played in twenty-nine of the team’s thirty contests averaging thirty-five minutes of playing time. To go along with his 18 PPG average, he averages four assists and two steals per game while shooting eighty-three percent from the free throw line.
Solidifying the guard play are:
Ochai Agbaji – 30 games played, 33 minutes per game, 10 PPG, 33 percent from three-point range
Marcus Garrett – 30 games played, 32 minutes per game, 9 PPG, 33 percent from three-point range
Isaiah Moses – 29 games played, 24 minutes per game, 9 PPG, 35 percent from three-point range
Christian Braun – A sleeper to some, Christian has played in all thirty contests averaging 18 minutes of playing time. Along with a respectable 43% FG average, he is 45% from three-point range.
As team, Kansas plays solidly. The players work together and compliment each other very well. The turnover ratio is a little suspect averaging 13 per game, but that is not red flag territory. Offensively, the Jayhawks average 75 PPG. Due to Azubuike in the middle along with solid perimeter defense, Kansas has the #9 ranked defense in the nation allowing only 60 PPG. On the boards, they hold a rebounding advantage of 38-32 average per game; 28 defense, 10 offense. The offense number could be stronger, but it’s not a variable which causes concern. Overall, the Jayhawks should make a nice run through rounds, 64, 32 and even 16. How the brackets are aligned will paint a more clear picture for the Elite 8 and Final Four, but it won’t be surprised when they show up in both of those rounds.
For all of the team’s accomplishments, the program is staring down the barrel of some fairly significant NCAA violations. Five in total, all Level 1 or the most severe that can be issued. These stemming from
an FBI investigation involving Kansa (for one) and Adidas. A former Adidas employee has gone on record that they made a payment of, $90K, to the family of a Kansas recruit, Billy Preston. He also payments totaling, $22.5K, to the guardian of, Silvio De Sousa. De Sousa is the Kansas player who earlier in the season was suspended twelve weeks for his involvement in a brawl between Kansas and Kansas State.
At this stage it’s the finger pointing battle. The FBI did their investigations and due diligence, the NCAA reviewed and handed down the sanctions and now, the Counsel for the university are drafting and submitting their denials. In the body of one response, Kansas stated, ‘While there’s no denying those with Adidas have broken criminal law, the University of Kansas and its employees should not be held responsible for their conduct.’ Never mind there seems to be proof that Coach Self was fairly familiar with the Adidas bagman. Or that, representation for, James Gatto, former Adidas executive, told a jury that his client did make payments to families only after it had been requested by, Coach. There’s more of the story that is readily available online and in court transcripts.
Coach Self takes the position he was unaware of anything. H also indicates it hasn’t gotten in his way or distracted him and he doesn’t see where it will in the near future. After all, there’s basketball to be played, tournaments to be won and most importantly, incentives to collect.
One element to consider in evaluating Kansas chances is if they will get the “whistle” in the Tournament. Will the NCAA instruct the Referee to in a subtle way give the opposing team the close calls in crucial situations ?
This situation can work at least two ways for the team. It can distract them or motivate them as they look into the future of potential sanctions which could ban them from post season tournament play. The latter part of 2020 will hold the answers to the future of the program. Coach Self, can feign ignorance or defer to the University’s Administration, who are also electing to feign innocence and ignorance, but it’s difficult to fathom.
Maybe I’m just a control freak, but as head coach or the guy in-charge of anything, I’m going to ask my support team to provide regular reports on each of their respective areas and I’m going to do my due diligence to make sure the business of the program is on the up and up. Either way, whether you were privy to and condoned payments or if you were unaware of how your staff was operating, you weren’t doing your job. Unfortunately, in the big dollar world of NCAA sports, it seems to be accepted that ethics and moral conduct can be manipulated as long as it gives one’s team the upper hand.
By Raider Jim Martinez
You don’t have to be a diehard college basketball fan to recognize or know some of the programs which are consistently placed in the elite category. One of those programs will
always be listed near the top of the totem pole, The Duke Blue Devils.
Since 1990, the Blue Devils have always been part of the NCAA tournament field. Thirteen times they entered as a number one seed. Eight times Duke was featured in the championship game and five times they were crowned the National Champions. While posting a sixty-three percent winning record in their championship game appearances, not every year had been a championship year for Coach K and his squads.
It’s known that college basketball can be very lucrative for the universities. Just like college football, there are bragging rights abound for alumni and more importantly, boosters. Also, it’s not a given that a school with a top echelon basketball program also has a topnotch football program. Case in point, the Duke Blue Devils. A very small percentage of the population would associate football with Duke, and some may not even realize the Duke has a football program. But basketball? Everyone associates Duke with basketball.
Conference tournaments, March Madness appearances and success in the tournament all equate to income for the universities. It is also the biggest opportunity for coaches to cash-in
on contract incentives. Here is an example from the 2019 March Madness tournament.
The contract for Virginia’s head coach, Tony Bennett, has no incentive if the Cavaliers win the Atlantic Coast regular season conference title. However, the Cavaliers’ Sweet Sixteen round victory over Oregon earned Coach Bennett a tidy, $250,000. The Elite Eight round had the Cavs facing Purdue’s Boilermakers. In a thrilling overtime win, the Cavs came out on top and that meant not only advancing to the Final Four, it meant another, $250,000 for Coach Bennett. The semifinals had the Cavaliers taking on Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers. Another down to the wire thriller with the Cavs winning by one and moving to the National Championship game where they met, Texas Tech. One more game, one more overtime win and the Cavalier’s secured the National Championship. That victory also secured one more bonus installment of, $400,000. Those are only the incentive bonuses for the tournament wins. He also received a paltry, $50,000, for being named ACC Coach of The Year. And, for reaching the five-year mark as head coach of the Cavaliers, Tony B. received a, one-million dollar longevity payment. One million dollars for being on the job for five years. The best I’ve ever received was a tie pin or a Starbucks gift card.
As you can see, lucrative is an understatement when it comes to the potential financial gains for universities and their regarded head coaches. So, what does this have to do with the Duke Blue Devils?
Along with the likes of, Kentucky’s, John Calipari, Duke’s Hall of Fame Coach, Mike Krzyzewski, has been very open that he earns his money through the tournaments. Success in the Big Dance is not only important for continuing to add onto the legacy and dynasty he has helped to create, it becomes personal when the incentives are applied.
Now Coach K’s down years are few and far between. There are coaches who have come and gone throughout NCAA basketball that would trade just about anything to have one of Coach K’s down years. But while it’s known where Coach K earns the big bucks, it doesn’t appear this will be one of those years.
Some prescribe to the theory that the seasoned coaches, the ones with longevity, practice a variety of ways to position themselves for the tournament. Depending on the program, things like dropping a few consecutive games, some inconsistent play, aren’t reasons for concern. In fact, that might be true to some programs, but I don’t think that applies to the 2020 Duke Blue Devils.
Don’t get me wrong, Duke has twenty-four wins and in the ACC are currently one-half game back from second place, Florida State. But, Duke also has six losses and historically, that seems to be somewhat of a magic number.
This year’s Duke team has not seen consistent play from, forwards Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore. Guard Cassius Stanley has also had issues finding a consistent rhythm. Generally speaking, the offense is strong, but they have trouble closing games as was witnessed this past weekend when Duke couldn’t hang onto the lead and lost at the hands of the Virginia Cavaliers. A glaring stat from that game is the, seventeen percent, 3-of-18, performance on layups. It wasn’t just the offense, defensively, they had issues and one that has seemed to be present throughout the season.
Tre Jones is a great defensive player and one-on-one can shut down any guard he plays against. Vernon Carey is certainly a big man you want in the paint. Unfortunately, it seems teams have figured out how to dribble through the Duke defense. There’s the problem and that’s how they lost to Virginia. Again, this wasn’t an isolated game or instance, this has been an issue all season, one that has contributed to the six losses. So, what’s magical about six (or more) losses going into March Madness?
Since 2000, the Blue Devils have won three National Championships, 2001/35-4, 2010/35-5, 2015/35-4. In each of those years, Duke entered the tournament as a number one seed. Conversely, in 2003, Duke entered the tournament as a number three seed and lost to Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen round. That year Duke lost six regular season contests In 2007, after recording nine regular season losses, Duke was given a 6 seed and lost in the opening round to VCU. 2014 saw the Blue Devils as a number three seed and they suffered an opening round loss to fourteenth seeded Mercer. That year, Duke lost seven regular season games.
There you have it. Food for thought. All fact, no fake news here. Certainly, Duke can get their dancing shoes ready. They’ll certainly be invited to the party. But in my estimation, they won’t come close to being around for the last dance.
I have unresolved grief about my mom died 2002 while people from the church were singing in the house…..Everyone handles grief differently. And guys hate to feel. So the process I use; My wife the psychotherapist states is Cognitive behavioral Therapy. Is 1st write the triggering event; for it would be ” vision of mom dying in bed” 2) Key thoughts and beliefs……. The beliefs part is super important…..What is it that you truly believe ? God ? Evolution ? Science ? The afterlife ? Get down to what it is that you truly believe….” I do not know” is an acceptable answer. But be real about what you believe
3) Write down your feelings… for me is “guilt: anger, confusion, fury” sometimes feelings are sounds and not words…..make those sounds….write down and track everything
4) Step is : Positive Conclusion…….When you start getting good; do not skip steps; you have to do them in order…..
5)Do this for 21 straight days, and journal at least once a week…..That is what works for me.
My journal process is 1) What am I proud of ? 2) What progress did I make yesterday and did I fill out my to do list ? and follow up with my friends, vertical market for business, and clients in the “before and doing process?”
3) What can I improve on ? Am I following the correct mental habits ?
It’s that simple. That is the definition of what is a poll. Polls are most recognized as a means to take the temperature of the political climate at any moment in time. However, the polls in the 2016 clearly stated it was going to be President Clinton. As result it became clear to a large portion of the population that scientific polls may be unreliable predictor of high probabilities.
On the eve and nights of any election, news outlets will present viewers with absentee ballot statistics, election exit polls and many other forms of data, which are intended to provide the public with a valid consensus of what the final results will be.
Forecasting the winner. The betting markets however are now recognized as a better predictor of outcomes than scientific Polls. In the last elections every poll was wrong other than the Los Angeles Times Tracking Poll. However that betting saw a late surge of now President Trump betting action. Especially from Russian President P utin. Just Kidding lol. We are a non political podcast.
Over the past few decades, with the immergence of the worldwide web and especially the explosion of social media, anyone and everyone can conduct a poll on anything which is of general interest to the individual creating the poll, specific groups or the general population.
Who makes the best pizza? Who was the best player to ever wear the Yankee pinstripes? Rolling Stones or Beatles? The world has no shortage of polls and where there’s a poll, there a tens-of-thousands of opinions. So, what makes one poll better than another and how does one determine which one is more credible?
Nate Silver has made a career analyzing Polls to educate on high probability outcomes
For the Purposes of educating you on predicting high probability outcomes during March Madness Let’s look at the NCAA Men’s Basketball and National Football League Polls.
Starting with the NFL, there are thirty-two teams and roughly seventeen hundred players. While there’s still confetti falling from the most recent Super Bowl, there are some who are already posting 2020/21 NFL power rankings.
Interesting. I would think that at this time there are too many unknown variables to place a credible weight on the factors needed to determine a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Case in point,
on this very day, the Los Chargers, a team with no quarterback, several positions in question and coming off of a dismal season, are posted as 20/1 favorites to win the AFC. Another AFC 20/1 favorite, the Tennessee Titans. I can’t believe whatever combination of variables and covariables were used to calculate these odd could truly have such similar results when looking at these two teams. And so, what we have are odds based on some fact and one heck of a lot of speculation. But back to polling.
With the exception of some, independent, random groups, regular season NFL polls will prove to be fairly similar. Compare those of, the AP, ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, USA Today and you will find negligible differences as the season progresses. On any given week if three teams are deadlocked with similar records, then strength of schedule should determine a clear number one. Yet, it’s also very plausible for two or all three teams to not only have similar records, but to also have played similar strengths of schedule and therefore making each team deserving to be the number one. There are a lot of complicated factors to consider and put together to picture a high probability outcome.
“Seeing is believing” On our 10 rules for betting on NFL -College Football and NBA and College basketball rule #2 is do your research. Link here http://ecosystemsbusinessconcierge.com/2019/08/28/top-10-rules-for-betting-nfl-cfb-and-college-basketball/. And polls put information in your mind. However the point we are making here is that these polls are as worthless and the national polls predicting Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump in 2016.
The other poll we’ll use as an example are those tracking, NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball. Unlike the NFL data of teams, players and games, NCAA Men’s Basketball data is exponentially greater. We’re talking, three-hundred and fifty-four teams, distributed over thirty-two conferences across the nation, with four thousand, three hundred athletes. From the beginning of the pre-season through all conference/league play, some ten thousand games will be played.
The major polls for NCAA Basketball are the AP and Coaches polls. Beyond those two, there are a plethora of outlets who employ an astounding number of “experts”. USA Today, every major media network, major and even mid-market newspapers and of course the growing number of online gambling books have their own experts and polls. From Ken Pom to Advanced Analytics outfits
Now bottom line it is our philosophy on the #EBSC Podcast that experts are the ones that can predict consistently the outcome of games above 52.5% up to 80%. If you are hitting over 80% you are a degenerate not paying attention to your business or family; just sitting there researching games. What gives us a heightened sense of awareness is that we only get paid if we consistently hit over 52.5% and we are enjoying watching the games laughing , texting our buddies, and dancing after wins.
Sticking with the AP and Coaches polls, each have established the standard format of selecting the
Top 25 teams in the nation that the end of the year has been a poor predictor of the teams in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA basketball Tournament
The NCAA Basketball polls are as active as the stock exchange. The coveted Number One ranking is the double-edged sword.
Ask, Coach Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans. In, November 2019, as the Thanksgiving holiday tournaments were wrapping-up, one very noted national sports network page and probably a couple of others, ran headlines to the effect, ‘MICHIGAN STATE READY TO CONTROL THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSIP FROM WIRE-TO-WIRE’. That was in November. This week’s headline, ‘PRE-SEASON NO. 1, MICHIGAN STATE DROPS OUT OF TOP 25’.
What we’re trying to impress is that when it comes to NCAA Basketball, the variables and covariates are so deep, one really has to do their homework to understand the polls and reach educated conclusions on the wagers being considered.
In reality there are 6 polls to take note of. The aforementioned AP, and Coaches Poll. The NCAA committee poll that is driven by politics and marketing interest of the Nate Silver has made a career analyzing Polls as a tool to educate on high probability outcomes
The NCAA has a 3 Billion dollar contract with CBS Sports and part of the deal is the “made for TV” 16 team reveal in early February.
3. The Las Vegas Casino polls 4. Iine institute polls &power ranking. 5. The public at large perception. But the most important poll is like #ESBC Podcast member Craig Misrack states is 6. your poll. “See with your eyes” Misrach states every NFL Betting and Gambling Podcast.
Reporters have to keep relationships with players and coaches. As a result they do not want to lose access for writing stories over being honest over where the team they are covering should be ranked.
Another factor to consider is that coaches add pieces for the offensive and defensive schemes as the year goes along.
Coaches that have won titles like John Calipari, Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, and Jay Wrigt ect only care about the post season so they will “take the pedal off the medal” to protect their kids legs for March Madness to earn multi million dollars bonuses. So early season, and some mid season games they are willing to lose in order to make the Final Four where the fans are happy, and their wives are happy about the money.
.The goal of the casinos is to influence you to pick the wrong team so they can make a profit.
Do not allow false premises to mess up your decision making process
Like we say at the beginning of the Podcast the object is to make us and you money. You have to make your own determination based on our goals of cashing 80% of tickets consistently, with a sustainable process and consistently increasing the bank roll to pay for gas, dinners and drinks.
One of my Childhood hero’s Drew Person wrote, “MEL TUCKER IS A CON MAN! He recruited my grandson to go to CU said he wasn’t going anywhere then ups and leaves. Sat there and lied to my face he wasn’t going anywhere!”
In California the definition and test for fraud is 1) lying 2) Someone acting upon the lie. 3) The person acting upon the lie being damaged with time and money.
Mel Tucker a long time assistant and defensive coordinator in the NFL took the job at the University Of Colorado for $3.5 million a year. He told recruits; kids 18 to 22 years of age that he was going to be their coach for 4 years, help them learn about life, be a father figure, help them get a college degree, and help them grow into a man.
After telling that to recruits, parents, and staff at the University Of Colorado; he took off for more money at Michigan State after only one year. College coaches do this all the time. That is why I open my podcast about Sports Gambling ” The purpose of the Podcast is to make money” as I make subtle joke every time about the hypocrisy in people. I take my shot at the disingenuous notion people have to lie about how money. Money is the bases and reason for 80% of decision making in the United States. And we need to be clear about this in all our communications to be clear. This would avoid 80% of the divorces out there.
This has to stop. It sets a bad example to public at large, the parents and the kids. NCAA should suspend Tucker and put Michigan State on probation for a year. They have proven to be incompetent in the case Larry Nassar; the athletic doctor that molested all the women, all the football and basketball players who have committed crimes throughout the years.
Also blame his agent most likely Jimmy Sexton or someone like him and stupid College grossly over paid administrators who get conned all the time; research the buyout incompetent USC coach Clay Helton. This was done by Willie Taggart at Oregon. Bottom line, do not want to see the word integrity come out of the mouth of Mel Tucker.