You often read or hear that betting lines are designed to get betting going on both sides of a bet. Huge myth; the lines are designed to get you to bet the wrong team so the Casino takes your money.
I encourage you to read Victor Cappello’s and I’s rules for betting so you are not taken advantage of. We have been 75% on average on our bets the last 11 years; break even in betting is 52.5%
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines; Favorites are listed next to the negative number when you read them in the Casino, on you sports betting app or the newspaper. The negative number represents how many point they must win by to cover the spread.
Eagles 1.5 for example means that Philadelphia must beat the Seahawks by at least to0 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score of a game, or better written if the reams’ combined score in the games over or under a preselected number of points/.
People who go to Vegas are on vacation and do not care about “over paying” so they over pay on betting lines; why us who bet on games every week; go for the lower price and win money consistently sustainable which means business. Also a lot of people break our rule #1 and bet their own team no matter what the line is.
Value by business, finance and academic definition is a value equation represented by Psychological Factors + Functional Factors/ Time and Money. As result you use this formula in conjunction with Arbitrage, return to the mean, and the mathematical law of opposites to make a determination on how to research a game to place a bet.
- Key numbers in betting football games is 3,7,10 and 21. A late field goal and a late touchdown can beat you
- Why 3.5 and 7.5 and 10.5 and 21.5 we buy the half point depending on the research you have done, logic and side you picked. Bottomline you do not want a late touchdown or field goal to beat you. As result the casino knows this and you will make less money when you protect yourself against a key number.
- But “Salesman think short=term and businessman thinks long term”. What that means in betting is that to have fun, make a profit long term, and have your wife pay for rising gas prices with betting money you want to be consistent to attain value from a “value equation perspective:”
- 1) You have the “opening line” then 2) you have the line the line “during the week 3) You have the lines 1 hour or 30 mins before kickoff
While is it is important how Casinos just come up with lines just as important the history behind the lines.
The modern line has it’s roots in Lefty Rosenthal. He is the inspiration for the Movie Casino.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenthal You can read his full Wikipedia here. He eventually started the “Line institute” who sold lines to Casino’s. And then the Bookmaker at the Casino creates the final line based on his research.
As a result rule #2 of betting after rule #1 do not bet your own team is do your research. Any question feel free to reach out to our twitter handles www.twitter.com/josuevizcay
http://atomic-temporary-3860849.wpcomstaging.com/2019/10/24/gambling-betting-podcast/
Josh Vizcay and Victor Cappello
