Top 10 Rules For Betting NFL-CFB And College Basketball

Sometimes no one thinks you are smart. No one wants to give you a chance. Then your mind wonders to those who have given you a chance and were able to monetize it by giving them “true scarce value.”

Then to escape you focus on the one thing that does not have a built-in barrier. Something you can do is use your knowledge of Sports, financial markets and people to give yourself access to money without having to hear your bosses opinion, your wife’s opinion or deal with a “pain in the ass” client.

Systematically betting on NFL, College Football, College Basketball, and some NBA allows making a decision without having to hear anyone else’s mouth.
You can always win and have money in your pocket to avoid “Hard Times” in the “American Dream” Dusty Rhodes sense. 
Over a 10 year period with my brother who I met at work in Carlsbad California: Victor Cappello; have come up with a process of 243 rules of betting. The result of those rules are we paid for Vegas trips including our legendary 4 days in Vegas for the start of the NCAA tournament where we won over 90% of our bets and did a crazy parlay that we only needed Texas to inbounds the ball and we would have been retired.

However, that is the “beauty” and “fun” of betting like sociologist you enjoy the madness and craziness of human nature. Even though it is Sports gambling it is very clean compared to other forms of entertainment these days.
  However, you have to have a system or code you live by not only to make money betting but have fun and laugh while you are doing it. Each part of the country is different. Therefore outcomes vary. 
I am originally from Los Angeles California and spent 20 years in Florida and now I have been back in Southern California for the past 11 years. Victor is originally from Buffalo, we met in Carlsbad California and we have used our knowledge and sports together for a million laughs over the last decade. Also, we have paid rent and Christmas presents with our picks. Here are your top 10 Sports gambling rules and remember come up with a few of your own and let us know. 

  1. Never bet on your own team. This is straight out of economics. Economics is 40% math and 60% in psychology. Because of the emotional attachment, propaganda in the newspaper and TV you always think that your team will perform better than you think when times are going good and worse when times are going bad. Especially if you have a job and a wife or girlfriend or kids you are never going to put the pieces to pick the right side of a game 
  2. If you lose it is not because of “bad luck” it is because you picked the wrong team; No Such Thing As A “Badbeat” The reason you can make money consistently in Sportsbetting is that coaches like Bill Belicheat, Nick Satan and Andy Reid have scripts for the 1st 20 plays of every game and map out how the season will go. Therefore after watching games your whole life you can pick up on patterns and predict how players will react. However, like in economics, the “opposite of every truth is also true”. Betting uses the law of “opposites” for every coach like Andy Reid there are coaches like Anthony Lynn of the San Diego Chargers right now in 2018. I am sure he is trying to do the same things as Belicheat and Reid but since every NFL team has different management styles the execution is different therefore you get random results that you can consistently bet against depending on the situation. I have been told by people that work at NFL teams front offices that even though it is “counter-intuitive” there is not a consistent book of best practices for every team. Each team has a different management system. You can tell which team has a good management system and which do not.  The league Commissioner makes sure the “goose that is laying the golden eggs” PR and marketing do not get affected by the different management styles. Therefore after each outcome reflect and think why you got the pick right or wrong 
  3. Never Bet More Than 25% Of Bank Roll: If you were psychic you would know the Lottery numbers. Because of evolution and coping mechanisms we overestimate decisions. So no matter how much you think a team will win; to keep money in your bankroll to have fun never bet more than 25% of your bankroll. 52% is break even and 70% is the goal to attain.
  4. Never Parlay Games: “Salesmen think short-term and businessmen think long term”  the variables are too many to be a good business decision pure entertainment is another story
  5. Never Bet Without During Your Research; Read the local “beat writers”; talk to fans at the games that really know what they are talking about, read the preseason magazines but do not pay attention to any of the predictions: make your own. Always know what happened the last time the teams played
  6. Bet The Moneyline: Do not get killed by extra point missed
  7. Bet The Coaches Not The Players  Coaches especially in College control the game. What are the coaches goals? Does he care about bowl games; and wears out his teams getting reps for the next season? Does he only care about the season regular season division title like Bill Self and lose early in the tournament? Is the coach like Belicheat where the full offensive and defensive schemes are not in until the playoffs? is there “bad blood” between the coaches?
  8. Myth Lines Are Made For Betting On Both Sides & Any Statistic Is Useful     Lines are made to make money. If the lines makers can get 80% of the people to bet the wrong team “they” love it. I have a client who does analytics for a major league baseball team and will not take any NFL clients. She is the smartest person I have ever met. She is a mathematician. She states analytics does not work in football because mathematically there are too many variables
  9. Stop Betting If You Are Not Laughing All The Time, Having Fun And Helps You Escape From Reality 
  10. Use The Same Logic For Investing In Stocks, Businesses And In Products In Betting. Value is value. If you have information that the masses do not then go for it; put money down,

10 Questions To Ask When Hiring A Financial Planner

  1. Take a look over my portfolio over the last 10 years if you have a higher percentage gain than myself then you can manage my portfolio; if I have a higher percentage then I will manage your portfolio
  2. Have you owned a business? If so what was your free cash flow in the last year?
  3. What is your portfolio management philosophy?
  4. How many months out of the year do you work? and how many months are you on vacations?
  5. Do you pick up your kids from school?
  6. What is your why? for business?
  7. In your opinion which business in the industry has the best business model?
  8. What is the name of your firm and other than “exactly me” what else do they specialize in?
  9. Why did you become a financial planner?
  10. What is your philosophy for a “down market”?

 

The notion of “rejection” in Business is irrational

The whole notion of rejection in sales is ridiculous. An example is when I was single I dated several women who did not want to buy a product I was selling. I even dated a woman who would not eat at the restaurant I owned. She accepted my humor, she accepted me sexually, and she lived with me for 5 years. She just did not like Cuban Food. A lot of people in American society catastrophize things to attack you; so we constantly have to fight off people and things going through life. So the fact that someone did not buy what you are explaining value at the time has absolutely nothing to do with you. Rejection pretty stupid. The person rejecting does not have all the information that is needed to make a decision about you.

Bottomline On Failure Talk-2015

A) Failure starts when you stop trying or quit trying ; and do not have a clear plan otherwise you still have not failed. Also you have not been defeated until you have admitted defeat.

America is all about winners and losers. People love to judge others and even “big time” preachers, motivational speakers to make themselves winners and you the losers say things like “people do not change” “you can rebound from failure”. Both are wrong. While if something is not working and will not work obviously you attack from another angle. But as long as you are fighting failure is just thought not a reality.

As an MBA my analysis of the Book about the “1%”

Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty breaks down the only ways to make money. He is the one the coined the term “The 1%)

1) Money from inheritance

2) Capital from Assets

3) Money from Real Estate

4) Money from labor….People who make the most money from labor are “Super Managers” =CEO’s and down the chain….then people who own “their own business” or have more control over “the line of production” ….Then you have to manage the right “life insurance policy” which is an asset……then “taxes” and structure…then your “Real Estate” all complicated full of variables…..

Do You Know The Difference Between “Sales” and “Marketing” ?

The difference between “Marketing” and “Sales” in a technical or cultural sense is “Marketing” is explaining the value of what services or products you provide.

People get wrong what the real meaning of “Sales” is constantly. In 1000’s of trainings at profitable corporations they get the meaning of the word completely wrong. Sometimes on purpose to manipulate.

“Selling” especially from an United States cultural perspective is when the prospect or suspect states they disagree or do understand your product or service.

Business people who do not like to “over-come” objections or be “Salesy Creep” have to have their marketing so good they never have to sell. The marketing creates enough value to create a monetary transaction

Business people who like to sell or overcome objections learn to prepare their answers in a way that the prospects process the information as marketing or communication of value.

I have run into Mental Health professionals who see themselves as “Spiritual Healers” and do not want to sell. Also I have met Real Estate agents who see themselves as spiritual healers that do not want to sell. That is fine. Just understand your roll in your business.

To have a profitable business you have to have a deep understanding of the value equation which is (value =functional benefits +psychological benefits divided by Time costs + Money costs.)

Bottomline explain your unique true value to the marketplace and to your clients.

If you are really good at being a Mental Health professional or a really good loving Real Estate agent then it is your moral obligation to tell as many people as possible how you can make their experience in your area of expertise better. By executing and communicating  the value equation in the mind of your clients a lot good business is done.